Week 8 lineup, 2026
Pick a week. The chart is that week's roster: the NG Data projection, the ESPN Projection, and the league score. Miss is the score minus the projection. Closer is the smaller absolute miss. A new week shows up here after it is archived. Send that week's ESPN box score and the ESPN column gets filled in.
Week 7 · backtest
Backtest. The projection uses only weeks before week 7. The actual score was attached after that projection was made.
13 finished games have both projections. NG Data missed by 6.6 points on average. ESPN Projection missed by 6.2. NG Data was closer on 7. ESPN Projection was closer on 6.
Starters
| Slot | Player | Opp | Matchup | NG Data | ESPN Projection | Score | NG Data Miss | ESPN miss | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Bryce Young | TB | DANGER | 17.4 | 17.7 | 5.4 | -12.0 | -12.3 | NG Data |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | DANGER | 20.4 | 19.1 | 9.7 | -10.7 | -9.4 | ESPN Projection |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | GB | DANGER | 23.7 | 26.0 | 17.3 | -6.4 | -8.7 | NG Data |
| WR | George Pickens | PHI | ELITE | 19.8 | 13.2 | 15.7 | -4.1 | +2.5 | ESPN Projection |
Why this matchup was elite11.2 air yards per target. PHI has allowed 23.8 PPR per game to WR Standard. The league average is 19.1. PHI ranks 6 of 32 in points allowed to WR Standard. Rank 1 has allowed the most. This matchup is elite because that rank is in the top quarter: the defenses that have given up the most to this style. 23.8 per game is 1.25 times the league average of 19.1. Form going in is 15.9 PPR, adjusted to 19.8 for the matchup. PHI has allowed 12.08 yards per play on passes of 10 to 19 air yards (51 plays, 65% positive EPA). League average is 9.5 yards and 55% positive EPA. |
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| WR | Jaylin Noel | NYG | GOOD | 13.4 | 8.5 | 1.7 | -11.7 | -6.8 | ESPN Projection |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | DET | ELITE | 14.3 | 12.1 | 14.8 | +0.5 | +2.7 | NG Data |
Why this matchup was elite5.1 air yards per target. DET has allowed 20.6 PPR per game to TE Short. The league average is 9.7. DET ranks 1 of 32 in points allowed to TE Short. Rank 1 has allowed the most. This matchup is elite because that rank is in the top quarter: the defenses that have given up the most to this style. 20.6 per game is 2.12 times the league average of 9.7. Form going in is 10.4 PPR, adjusted to 14.3 for the matchup. DET has allowed 5.62 yards per play on passes under 10 air yards (124 plays, 60% positive EPA). League average is 5.88 yards and 53% positive EPA. |
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| FLEX | Braelon Allen | MIA | ELITE | 15.2 | 14.6 | 19.4 | +4.2 | +4.8 | NG Data |
Why this matchup was elite58% of charted runs up the middle or at the guard. MIA has allowed 20.8 PPR per game to RB Power. The league average is 15.9. MIA ranks 3 of 31 in points allowed to RB Power. Rank 1 has allowed the most. This matchup is elite because that rank is in the top quarter: the defenses that have given up the most to this style. 20.8 per game is 1.31 times the league average of 15.9. Form going in is 11.6 PPR, adjusted to 15.2 for the matchup. MIA has allowed 3.78 yards per play on runs up the middle or at the guard (93 plays, 43% positive EPA). League average is 3.91 yards and 41% positive EPA. |
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| D/ST | 49ers D/ST | ATL | ELITE | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | -7.6 | -3.1 | ESPN Projection |
Why this matchup was eliteSF defense form entering week 7 was 6.3 over 6 games. ATL ranks 3 of 32 in fantasy points given up to opposing defenses. Rank 1 has given up the most. This matchup is elite because that rank is in the top quarter: the offenses that have been the easiest to defend. 9.0 per game is 1.61 times the league average of 5.6. Form 6.3, adjusted to 8.6 for the matchup. |
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| K | Will Reichard | IND | ELITE | 21.2 | 11.5 | 12.0 | -9.2 | +0.5 | ESPN Projection |
Why this matchup was eliteKicker. IND has allowed 12.2 PPR per game to K Standard. The league average is 8.5. IND ranks 3 of 32 in points allowed to K Standard. Rank 1 has allowed the most. This matchup is elite because that rank is in the top quarter: the defenses that have given up the most to this style. 12.2 per game is 1.43 times the league average of 8.5. Form going in is 15.4 PPR, adjusted to 21.2 for the matchup. |
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| Total | 154.1 | 126.8 | 97.02 | ||||||
Bench
| Slot | Player | Opp | Matchup | NG Data | ESPN Projection | Score | NG Data Miss | ESPN miss | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BN | Xavier Worthy | SEA | DANGER | 7.7 | 12.4 | 4.1 | -3.6 | -8.3 | NG Data |
| BN | Jameson Williams | GB | GOOD | 13.9 | 10.8 | 26.1 | +12.2 | +15.3 | NG Data |
| BN | David Montgomery | out | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | — |
| BN | Brenton Strange | bye | — | — | — | bye | — | — | — |
| BN | Courtland Sutton | ARI | GOOD | 5.8 | 8.9 | 7.5 | +1.7 | -1.4 | ESPN Projection |
| BN | Chris Godwin Jr. | CAR | DANGER | 5.5 | 11.1 | 6.7 | +1.2 | -4.4 | NG Data |
| BN | Brian Thomas Jr. | bye | — | — | — | bye | — | — | — |
| Total | 32.8 | 43.2 | 44.40 | ||||||
How the number is made
PPR uses nflverse fantasy_points_ppr for skill players and kickers. Defense scoring is the common points-allowed tiers plus sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, defensive touchdowns, safeties, and blocked kicks. A player's number is his recent form (last four games weighted toward the latest, blended with the season) times how many PPR points that defense has allowed to his style, shrunk toward the position when the sample is small. Styles: receiver air yards, running-back catch share, and run gap. Pass defense splits are air yards: under 0 screens, 0-9 short, 10-19 medium, 20+ long. Kickers are scored from the kick log because nflverse fantasy points for kickers are zero: extra point made 1, missed extra point -1, field goal 3 inside 40, 4 from 40-49, 5 from 50-59, 6 from 60, missed field goal -1. Named routes such as slants are not in the 2026 charting file. A free agent is marked high value only if he has played at least three games, played in week 6 or 7, and projects at least 2 points over the weakest starter who still has a game left. A quarterback or kicker projects for this week only if he is the starter on the current depth chart and is not Out. Injury status, practice, and the injury name come from the official NFL.com injury page. Out projects at 0. Doubtful keeps 35 percent of the matchup number. Questionable keeps 85 percent. The injury, the practice note, and that cut are part of the start/sit number. Elite means the opponent ranks in the top quarter of defenses by points allowed to that style, and rank 1 has allowed the most. Each published week is frozen the first time it is built. Actual points are filled in after the game. History is weeks 1-7. Week 8 games that already have a final score use the actual points.